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试论二十一世纪的工业革命

发布: 2018-1-19 15:02 |  作者: 仲武 |   查看: 2245 次

试论二十一世纪的工业革命

Discussion on the Industrial Revolutionof the Twenty-First Century

仲武

摘要:本文通过对工业革命概念的辨析,提出关于工业革命阶段划分的一个观点,对新工业革命做了重新定义;认为“让能量动起来、让热机冷下来、让排放变资源”这三个理念,是新的工业革命的创新发展的着力点,可以带来能源、动力、减排领域的大变革和大发展,进而推动一场新的工业革命。

Abstract:this paper, by analyzing the concept of theindustrial revolution, puts forward a view on the division of the phases of the Industrial Revolution, redefines the new industrial revolution, and considers that the three ideas, i.e. “Making the Energy Move from There to Here, Makingthe Heat EngineCool Down&Turning Discharged Waste into Resources” are the focus of innovation and development of the new industrial revolution, which can bring about great change and development in the field of energy, power and emission reduction, and thus promote a new Industrial Revolution.

关键词:工业革命、技术创新、技术创造、社会变革

Key words: Industrial Revolution, Technology Innovation, Technology Creation, Social Change

一、 工业革命的概念和特征The concept and characteristics of the industrial revolution

工业革命应该是人类历史上具有划时代意义的伟大革命。一百多年来,学者们就工业革命的定义争论不休,研究的问题越来越深入。但研究者即使对一些基本问题也很少形成共识,“究竟什么是工业革命”这一问题往往人言人殊。

The industrial revolution is a great epoch-making revolution in human history. For more than a century, scholars have been debating the definition of the industrial revolution, and the research on it has become more and more deep. However,little consensus is achieved among researchers,even on the basic issues such as the essence of the industrial revolution.

从学术角度分析工业革命的字面,包含“工业”和“革命”两个部分。根据百度百科:工业(industry)是指采集原料,并把它们加工成产品的工作和过程。工业是社会分工发展的产物,经过手工业机器大工业现代工业几个发展阶段。革命,则是指推动事物发生根本变革,引起事物从旧质变为新质的飞跃,是一种实现社会变革的历史过程。

Literally, the industrial revolution is consisted of two parts, one is “industry” ,the other is “revolution”. According to the Baidu Baike, the industryrefers to a processin which the raw material is collected and processed into products or a work that collects raw material and processes the material into products. As a product of the development of social division of labor, the industrial revolution experienced several development stages including handicraft, machineryandmodern industry. Revolution, a historical process to achieve social change,refers to the promotion ofthe fundamental changes in thingsandcausing things to leap from the old quality to a new one,

因此,本文认为工业革命就是造成工业过程、工业规模、工业技术等和工业息息相关的诸多领域均发生突变,对工业产生巨大影响,引起跨越式进步和发展的一场社会产业变革。

Therefore, This paper argues thatthe industrial revolution is a social and industrial transformation that causes a great change in the fields of industrial process, scale, and technology, and greatly impact industry and cause leaping progress and development.

国内外学者把工业革命定义的研究分为社会变革学派、工业组织学派、宏观经济学派、技术学派、能源学派和消费学派等,这些研究分别从不同侧面去抓工业革命的特征。本文也根据这一百多年来工业革命的发展历程和发展成果,从工业的第二产业的实业属性出发,总结归纳出一些工业革命明显应具有的特征:

Domestic and foreign scholars have divided the research on the definition of industrial revolution into social change, industrial organization, macroeconomic, technical, energy and consumption schools.This paper, based on the developmental processand results,and starting from the attribute of industry of secondary industry , will summarize some of the obvious characteristics of theindustrial revolution.

1.        社会影响规模 The scale of social impact

工业革命引起社会发生广泛的变革,影响到工业和工业相关的各行各业的发展变化,不局限于某一单一领域或者少数几个领域;

The industrial revolution will cause widespread changes in society, which affectthe development and change of industry and industry-related areas, not limited to a single or a few area(s)

2.        市场经济价值the value of the market economy

一场工业革命的发生,必然在相当长的时间里持续影响社会生产总值的大幅度增长,甚至要大到难以估量的地步;

The occurrence of an industrial revolution should inevitably continue to lead to the substantial growth of the gross social product for a considerable period of time, the growth is even too big to be estimated;

3.        技术理论进步Progress in technology theory

工业领域发生重大的理论突破和进步,这些系统、全面的新理论、新认识的应用,引起工业过程发生前所未有的变化,全社会产生强大的变革发展的内在动力;Some major theoretical breakthroughs and progresses should appear in the industrial field, and the application of these systematic, comprehensive new theory and understanding shall cause unprecedented changes in industrial processesand produce inner dynamics for the reformative development of the society at large;

4.        生产力的发展Development of productive force

真正的工业革命必然带来人类社会生产力的巨大的、飞跃式的发展,同时也推动生产关系的巨大变化;

The real industrial revolution will inevitably bring huge and leaping development to human social productive forces, andpromote the great changes in the relations of production at the same time.

5.        历史因果关联Historical causal relationship

新工业革命不应该是缓慢、渐进、累加式的发展,几乎没有和历史的渐进性关联,是一种在现有的工业发展过程中产生新的爆炸式增长、突变式发展。

The new industrial revolution should not be a slow, progressive, cumulative development, but should be an explosive growth or breaking developmentemerged in the process of industrial development,almost without associationwith progressivity of the history.

这些都是一场工业革命应该同时具有的特征。人类已经经历过的第一次工业革命(动力机械的诞生和发展)、第二次工业革命(电的发现和应用)都具有上述这些特征。被社会普遍接受的已经发生甚至接近完成的“第三次工业革命”、“第四次工业革命”观点、说法,就不太符合上述特征。

A industrial revolution should have all the above characteristics. Both the first industrial revolution(birth and development of power machinery)andthe second industrial revolution(discovery and application of electricity) that have been experienced by mankind also have the above characteristics. However, the so-called “Third Industrial Revolution” or “Fourth Industrial Revolution”, which has been described as occurring or even nearing completion, does not meet the above characteristics.

第一次工业革命引起了从手工劳动向动力机器生产转变的重大飞跃。这场革命的过程一直延续到今日,我们人类离不开的各种机器设备,特别是动力设备,几乎都和这场革命的开始而同时诞生,并在这100多年中不断、循序渐进的发展和完善。即便是刚刚退出历史舞台的蒸汽机车,仍在极少数的应用场合发挥着作用。第二次工业革命则让人开始使用“电”,这是和蒸汽机、内燃机完全不同的一次新领域的突破,从电灯、电话,有线电、无线电,电脑、互联网,都是“电”在发挥神奇的作用,都是人类随着对“电”的认识不断深入,“电”的应用领域不断扩展的过程。这个渐进、发展过程中没有哪一个阶段能单独称其为新的“工业革命”,充其量也只能是在某个小领域、小行业产生局部的“小革命”。应该说第一次工业革命、第二次工业革命从革命开始一直延续至今,还在不断进行中;能与之匹敌的新的“工业革命”还没有开始。

The first industrial revolution, which has continued to now, caused a major leap from manual labor to power machine production.The machinery and equipment used today, especially power equipmentalmost were born at the beginning of the revolution , and continuously andgradually developed and improved in this 100 years.Even the steam locomotives that just quit the historical stageare still playing a role in a very small number of applications.The second industrial revolution is characterized by the application of “electricity”, a breakthrough in the new field completely different from the steam engineandinternal combustion engine.the electricity plays a magical role in the areas ranging from the light, telephone, cable, radio to computerandInternet, this is a process in which the application of the electricity is expanded with deepening of the understanding of the electricity. In this gradually development process, there is no single phase which can be called the new "industrial revolution". At best, it can only be a small revolution in a small field or sector. It should be said that the first industrial revolution and the second industrial revolution has continued to this dayandis still ongoing, and the industrial revolution that cancompete with the first or second one has not yet begun.

二、 新的工业革命的基础和条件the foundation and conditionof the new industrial revolution

到了今天,人类社会的生产力已经高度发达,生产关系也达到较高水平,体现在经济繁荣、社会稳定。通俗的说法就是到了几乎什么需要的东西都能造出来,但是社会不知道该造什么了。到处都是产能过剩、“产品过剩”,整个社会消费需求乏力,人们对工业品的需求似乎都得到了满足,没什么大的需要了。偶尔出现一个新的市场,转瞬间就又饱和或过剩了,

Today, the productivity of human society has been highly developed, and the production relations have reached a high level, which is reflected by the economic prosperity and social stability.It can be said in layman's terms that almost all products that the society needs can be produced, but the whole society does not know what it should manufacture.Every industry is over capacity or products surplus.The whole consumer demand is weak, people's demand for industrial products seems to have been met without any further demand. The new market occasionally emerged is saturated or excessin a twinkling of an eye.

找不到新的需求、新的增长点,现有的原材料“蛋糕”、半成品“蛋糕”、产成品“蛋糕”有限,一些曾经发达、现在落后的国家眼看吃不到、不够吃了,竞争不过我们,则开始“耍赖”,惩罚性关税、贸易制裁、编造谎言欺骗等手段纷纷出笼,目的就是减缓我们的发展,让发展先进的国家慢下来、走入歧途。我们则开始改进“供给侧”,按照西方的忽悠“去产能”,在提升“品质”上下功夫,这一定就能让社会产生新的需求?难道人类生产力发展到了一定阶段就要“挥刀自宫”?真是“出头的椽子先烂”?我们现在大幅度消减全世界公认的重要战略物资煤炭、钢铁的产能,努力淘汰低水平产能。劣质煤停产,低标号水泥停产,低品质钢材停产,但如果哪天都到了高水平产能,都提升变成优质煤、高标号水泥、高品质钢材,再“过剩”了,又怎么办?生产出来高品质的、超越需求的“过剩产品”,能保证卖掉吗?

The new needs and new growth points can not be found, and the existing “cake” such as raw materials, semi-finished and finished products is limited.Because some countries that used to be developed found that they can not eat the cake and the cake is not enough, theyimpose shamelessly punitive tariffs, trade sanctions and fabricate lies in order to slow down the development of China andlead China to astray.And China starts to improve the “supply side”andmake great efforts to improve the qualityin accordance with the Westerncountry’s lies.Can this produce new demands?Is it necessary to cut off thehuman beings productivity when it developed to a certain stage?We are now significantly reducing production capacity of coalandsteel, the world recognized important strategic material, and make efforts to phase out low-level production capacity.However, if someday the production capacity of the high quality productsreach to a high level andthe high quality coal, cement and steel become surplus due to the productionstop offault coal, low-grade cement and low-quality steel , what shall we do? Canthese high quality products but exceeded demands be ensured to be sold out?

“引发工业革命的必要性是市场!”今天,实体经济发展却遇到瓶颈,能源危机也已经迫在眉睫。如果找不到“更大的蛋糕”,各个阶级、各种利益集团对现有“蛋糕”的争夺和分配的斗争将不断加剧,因此人类亟需再来一场真正的工业革命。

“It is the market that triggers the necessity for the industrial revolution!”Today, under the circumstance that the real economy has encountered a bottleneck and the energy crisis has been imminent, if a“bigger cake” can not be found, the fight forthe existing “cake” andits distribution by various classes and interest groups will increasingly intensify, so the human need to another real industrial revolution.

但什么才是工业革命?工业革命从哪里开始?靠什么实现工业革命?有人说靠模式、有人说靠信息、有人说靠智能化。依据本文总结的工业革命的特征可以得出,能称之为革命的,一定是大动作,一定是让人们生产、生活发生巨大变化的东西,一定是在经济规模上占据主要地位的部分,是“基础硬件”,不是“应用软件”。能源、动力每个人都离不开,每个国家都高度重视,第三次工业革命、新工业革命,一定还是从关乎人类生存、发展的基础产业:能源和动力开始。

What is the industrial revolution? Where will the Industrial Revolution begin?  What shall be relied on to achieve the industrial revolution? Some people say that theindustrial revolution will rely on the model, some people say rely on information, andsome people say by intelligent. According to the characteristics of the industrial revolution summarized in this paper, it can be concluded that what can be called a revolution must be a big movement, something that changes people's production and life in a big wayandoccupies the main position in economic scale. Energy or power, which has close relation with everyoneand is attached great importance by every countryand is one of thebasic industriesrelated to human survival and development, will be the starting point of the new or the thirdindustrial revolution.

三、 新工业革命的理念和方法The ideas and methods of the new industrial revolution

产业的革命,首先是理论的革命,只有理论的革命性发展,才会带来产业的革命性变革。人类对于自然科学基本规律的研究已经接近尽头,科技工作者除了研究石墨烯、引力波,还有没有和具体生产生活有着广泛、密切相关的重大创新研究内容呢?还有没有大变革的机会呢?

Industrial Revolution always begins with theoretical revolution.Only will the revolutionary development of the theory bringrevolutionary changes to the industry.The research on the fundamental law of natural science is nearing the end. In addition to studying graphene and gravitational wave, is there any othersignificant and innovative research content closely related to specific production and life for scientist to research? Is there any chance of big change?

创造是从无到有,创新是从有到用。人类现在对地球资源已经基本上了解清楚,容易获得的资源已经开发殆尽,从创造、发现的角度,已经开始研究开发页岩气、可燃冰了,能不能回头看看,还有什么可以创新的地方?我们有没有忽略什么东西?

Creation is the process to bring something into existence, while innovation is characterized in the application of better solutions. Mankind now already have a clear understanding of the Earth's resources. All resources that can be easily obtained have been fully developed;the study on and development of shale gas and flammable icefromthe perspective of creation and discovery have begun. In this circumstance, can we look back for what innovation may be made? Has any thing been ignored by us?

我们提出“让能量动起来、让热机冷下来、让排放变资源”的理念创新,让能量流动转移的方式带来各行业大幅度节能;让现有的各类发动机工作温度段落下调,使常温的热量也能转化为动力;让习惯排放的二氧化碳变为财富、资源、肥料,同时创造比燃烧热更高的效益!下面逐一进行解释说明。

The concept innovation made by us, i.e. “Making the Energy Move from There to Here, Makingthe Heat EngineCool Down&Turning Discharged Waste into Resources”, will not only bring significant energy saving to various industriesandlowerthe working temperature sections of existing engines but also transform the heat in normal temperature into power andturn the carbon dioxide emissions into wealth, resourcesandfertilizer while creating a higher efficiency than the heat of combustion! The following explanations are given one by one.

1.    让能量动起来,能源应用观念创新Making the Energy Move, a concept innovation of energy utilization

ü  用能量搬运移动、高能效比的方式大幅度提高能源利用效率

To greatly improve the efficiency of energy utilization by moving and handling the energy

人类千百年来养成了一个思维惯性:只要需要热量,就习惯用传统的煤、气、油、电等能源转换成热能。人们熟知的能量守恒定律,让许多人忽略了一种叫“热泵”技术的热能搬运 “杠杆”。即消耗一份能量,带动其他介质中已有热量的再利用,在得到同样多的热能时,新消耗的高品位能源、石化燃料会大大减少,可实现大幅度节能减排。

For hundreds of years, there has been an inertial thinking in mankind: whenever we need heat, we are used to using the heat converted from traditional energysuch as coal, gas, oil and electricity.Theknown energy conservation law has made many of us lose sight of the lever effect of heat transferof the so-called heat pump technology, which usesa small amount of energy to transportthe heat in other mediums so that the heat obtained from the mediums is sufficient to greatly reduce the consumptions of the high grade energy and fossil fuels, and significant energy saving and emissions reduction is achieved.

热泵技术有很多种,空调、制冷系统采用的是一种压缩式热泵系统,空调可以高效率地将室内外的热量来回搬运,夏天,把房间里的热量搬到室外;冬天把室外的热量搬到室内,能效比普遍在3倍以上,换句话说,比直接消耗能源物质获得热量的方法,节约能源三分之二以上!

There are many kinds of heat pump technology, one of which is a compression heat pump system used by air-conditioner andrefrigerating systems.An air conditioner can efficiently carry the heat back and forth inside and outside of a room. For example, the air conditioner carries the heat from inside of a room to the outside in summer and carries heat outside into the room in winter. Its energy efficiency ratio is generally three times. In other words, it saves two third of energy in comparison to the method that directly consumes energy substances for heat.

们使用空调、冰箱已超百年,这些年逐步推广开的水源热泵、地源热泵,也都是该原理的典型应用。遗憾的是,虽然能效比高,节能效果明显,但这些应用场合的设计温度太低,以输出温热水为主,主要用于空调、制冷、采暖、生活洗浴等,没有更高的工业利用价值,未能大范围涉及工业领域的高耗能环节,难以产生更好的节能减排社会效益。

Water Source Heat Pump(WSHP) and Ground Source Heat Pump(GSHP) that are being gradually popularized recent years work on the same principle as the air conditioner and refrigerator that came into our life one hundred year ago. Unfortunately, despite their high-energy efficiency ratiosand obvious energy saving results, the design temperatures for WSHP and GSHP applications are so low that they can mainly output hot water, and be used for air conditioning, refrigeration, heating, and bathing, without higher industrial value, or involving high-energy consumptionareas of the industry. Therefore, it is difficult for them to produce better social benefits of energy savingand emission reduction.

热泵技术本身从来没有“说过”自己不能超过100℃,难道只能用在几十摄氏度上?经过我们的研究实践,证明热泵输出可以很容易地突破100℃,完全可以介入大多数工业领域的高耗能环节,实现能源消耗关键环节的大比例节能。例如电能驱动的蒸汽锅炉,以前热泵技术只能在水加热70℃以下时起作用,涉及的工作范围太小,所节约的热能最大只能占到全热的3%8%,从系统复杂性、成本增加量等综合考虑,没有实用价值。热泵介入“水-汽”沸腾高耗能环节,且保持较高能效比时,才是热泵技术得以获得应用上的突破的基础。

In fact, the heat pump technology has never been said it is not able to exceed 100.Will the temperature difference of twenty or thirty degrees Celsius become a bottleneck in physics? Can the heat pump only be used in the temperature range of dozens of degrees Celsius? Of course, the answer is no! One of our studies has shown that the existing heat pump system output can easily reach 100 or more. These heat pumps has theability to workwith high-efficiency for a long time period, and can be used in most of high-energy consumption areas of theindustryto achieve a large proportion of energy saving.We take the steam boiler as an example: The previous heat pump technology has a maximum thermal energy saving that only account for 3% to 8% of total heat, and has no practical value due to its narrow working range of below 70 and other factors such as the system complexity and increased cost. It is the introduction of the heat pump intohigh-energy consumption areai.e.water-steam boilingand its efficient operation that can set a foundation for heat pump to achieve an breakthrough in boiler area.

热泵有太多种类,驱动热泵工作的能量来源也包括电能、热能、势能等,只要你的需求不要超过200℃,现有的设备、技术、工艺完全可以组合出你要的系统,实现大幅度节能的目的。如果我们的锅炉能从现在努力追求100%的效率,变成起步就是200%300%的效率或更高,节能50%以上,若我们家家户户的厨具节能60%以上,发热量就会成倍减少,厨房、车间就会变得凉爽。采用热泵蒸发方法处理污水、淡化海水,处理一吨水耗电仅十几度,还能生产纯水。我们的洗衣机、厨具、暖气、热水器就全都变了,这样是不是就有变革的感觉了?

There are many types of heat pumps. The energy source to drive the heat pump includes electricity, heat energy and potential energy, etc.. To the extent of all the current proven techniques, as long as your demand is not too high, for example,higher than 200, the existing equipment, technology and process can be used to assemble a system with heat pump to meet your demand for heat and substantially save energy.If we, from now on, strive for 100 percent energy efficiency for our boilers and obtain a energy efficiency at least between 200 percent and 300 percent, we will save energy more than 50 percent. If the cooking utensils in each household kitchen save energy more than 60 percent, heat value will dramatically reduce, the kitchen will becomecool.

When the heat pump evaporation method is used to treat sewage or desalinate seawater, treating a ton of water only spend electricity of a dozen kilowatt-hour, and we can get pure water at the same time. If our washing machines, kitchen utensils, heating, water heaters are all changed, this will look like areform?

ü  实现能源系统利用、阶梯利用提高能源利用效率

To improve Energy utilization efficiency by systematic and CascadeUtilization of the energy

长期以来,人们在使用能源的过程中普遍采用单一、直接利用的方式,需要热量就烧油、烧煤;需要制冷就采用电驱动压缩式热泵或者热量驱动吸收式热泵。比如建设火电厂,不考虑余热的利用,用个大型冷却塔一散了之;建设数据中心则主要考虑电如何廉价获得,不考虑巨大的电能源消耗产生的热能如何利用,只是考虑如何尽可能低成本实现散热。

For a long time, people are used to utilizing energy in a single and direct way. they burn oil and coal to meet their demand for heat, anduse electrically drivencompression heat pump or heat-driven absorption heat pump for refrigeration. For example,in the design of thermal power plants, the waste heat is dissipated in a large cooling tower without reuse.In the construction of data centers, the designers mainly consider how to access to cheap electricityandheat dissipationat the lowest cost, without considering how to use the heat generated by the huge electric energy.

能量在生成、流动过程中可以输出机械能,然后最终才都转化为热能。我们发电扔掉余热,我们采暖忽略掉可能输出高品位机械能、电能的机会。没有进行优先利用高品位利用、全过程利用、高效率利用。

In the generation and flow processes,energy can output mechanical power, and eventually turn into heat. In the process of generation, we throw away the waste heat that may output power. In heating, we ignore the chance to output high-grade mechanical or electrical energy, without first use of high-grade energy, whole process use, or high-efficiency use.

如果我们不要再建设大型、超大型火电站,反过来在让每一台锅炉成为先发电、后供暖供气的“小火电站”,那么还有“余热利用”的问题吗?能量利用过程中实现高品位利用,甚至可以利用高品位能源驱动“热泵”系统,让后续供暖、供汽的过程实际输出的能量大于燃料输出的总热值,能效比大于1,实现大幅度节能和能源的高效利用!

If we,rather thanbuilding more large or super-large thermal power plants, turn each boiler into a “small thermal power station” that first generates electricity then supply heating and steam, there will be no waste heat utilization problem.If we achieve high-grade use, and even use high-grade energy-driven “heat pump” system in energy utilization process so that the actual energy output of the subsequent heat and steam supply process is greater than the total calorific value of fuel, i.e. energy efficiency is greater than one, we will achieve substantial energy saving and the efficient use of energy!

只要我们转变思路,采用系统、高效的用能方式,将热泵技术在能源综合利用的场合充分利用,实现将空气中的、污水里的、土壤里的、回收其他热源得到的热量搬到生产、生活设备中循环利用;实现企业内冷热作业面的热能调度;甚至让能量在时间、空间流动起来,实现跨地区、跨季节、跨行业应用,系统新增的能量消耗仅是原有能耗的几分之一,必然会大大提高能源的利用效率,减少能源消耗和对环境的污染,改变目前能源供给日趋紧张的状况。

As long as we shiftour thinking, adopt systematic and efficient energy utilization mode, fully use the heat pump technology in comprehensive energy utilization applications, transport the heat in air, sewage, soil, as well as the heat recoveredfrom other sources of heat to production and life equipment for recycling, achieve the heat energy dispatch between hot and cold working face within the enterprise, or even make energy flow in time and space to achieve cross-regional, cross-season, cross-industry utilization, the system's new energy consumption will beonly a fraction of the original energy consumption , the efficiency of energy use will be inevitably greatly improved, energy consumption and environment pollution will be reduced, the increasingly tense situation of the current energy supply will be changed.

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